Many voices have been expressing their concerns on the US president-elect Donald Trump. Millions of tweets, blog posts, written press articles, hours of TV debates in different channels… One thing is for sure: there is great uncertainty in the next four years. The key aspect now is to watch how Donald Trump unfolds his policies and measures as he starts his mandate next January 2017.
Foreign capitals and investors anxiously await clarification of Donald Trump’s policies priorities.
There is a considerable chance that some who work in risk management end up logging new Top Risks directly related to the new Trump reality.
Outlook
US allies will seek quick reassurances about President-elect Trump’s commitment to Washington’s security arrangements, international agreements and participation in multilateral institutions while adversaries will likely take the opportunity to provide an early test of policies ill-defined on the campaign trail.
Moscow, in particular, is likely to exploit Trump’s perceived naivete to pressure NATO and Europe and gain ground in Syria. In Beijing, the uncertainty and instability that a Trump victory may bring to regional affairs offsets, for now, at least, any perceived weakening of Washington’s international prestige.
Some bilateral relationships, especially those with non-democratic US allies, may improve as a result of a muting of US criticism as a consequence of a hands-off Trump foreign policy.
Impacts
US security partners in East Asia and NATO will likely pursue greater defence expenditure and deepen ties with like-minded neighbours.
President Enrique Pena Nieto’s near- impossible task of mending US relations could end his party’s hopes in Mexico’s 2018 elections.
In Africa, relationships predicated on security will outweigh social and democratic issues.
